History-aware, real-time risk detection in business processes (Extended Version)

This paper proposes a novel approach for identifying risks in executable business processes and detecting them at run time. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, and is realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of faults to occur. Both historical and current execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a process automation suite to prompt the results to the user who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented in the YAWL system and its performance has been evaluated in practice.

Intelligent risk detection in healthcare contexts of hip and knee athroplasty and paediatric congenital heart disease

Rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Contemporaneous with the challenges facing healthcare, we are witnessing the development of very sophisticated intelligent tools and technologies such as Business Analytics techniques. Therefore, it would appear to be prudent to investigate the possibility of applying such tools and technologies into various healthcare contexts to facilitate better risk detection and support superior decision making. The following serves to do this in the context of Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty and Congenital Heart Disease.

Advances in therapeutic risk management through signal detection and risk minimisation tool analyses

Les quatre principales activités de la gestion de risque thérapeutique comportent l’identification, l’évaluation, la minimisation, et la communication du risque. Ce mémoire aborde les problématiques liées à l’identification et à la minimisation du risque par la réalisation de deux études dont les objectifs sont de: 1) Développer et valider un outil de « data mining » pour la détection des signaux à partir des banques de données de soins de santé du Québec; 2) Effectuer une revue systématique afin de caractériser les interventions de minimisation de risque (IMR) ayant été implantées. L’outil de détection de signaux repose sur la méthode analytique du quotient séquentiel de probabilité (MaxSPRT) en utilisant des données de médicaments délivrés et de soins médicaux recueillis dans une cohorte rétrospective de 87 389 personnes âgées vivant à domicile et membres du régime d’assurance maladie du Québec entre les années 2000 et 2009. Quatre associations « médicament-événement indésirable (EI) » connues et deux contrôles « négatifs » ont été utilisés. La revue systématique a été faite à partir d’une revue de la littérature ainsi que des sites web de six principales agences réglementaires. La nature des RMIs ont été décrites et des lacunes de leur implémentation ont été soulevées. La méthode analytique a mené à la détection de signaux dans l'une des quatre combinaisons médicament-EI. Les principales contributions sont: a) Le premier outil de détection de signaux à partir des banques de données administratives canadiennes; b) Contributions méthodologiques par la prise en compte de l'effet de déplétion des sujets à risque et le contrôle pour l'état de santé du patient. La revue a identifié 119 IMRs dans la littérature et 1,112 IMRs dans les sites web des agences réglementaires. La revue a démontré qu’il existe une augmentation des IMRs depuis l’introduction des guides réglementaires en 2005 mais leur efficacité demeure peu démontrée.

Managing risk in process-aware information systems

This research contributes a fully-operational approach for managing business process risk in near real-time. The approach consists of a language for defining risks on top of process models, a technique to detect such risks as they eventuate during the execution of business processes, a recommender system for making risk-informed decisions, and a technique to automatically mitigate the detected risks when they are no longer tolerable. Through the incorporation of risk management elements in all stages of the lifecycle of business processes, this work contributes to the effective integration of the fields of Business Process Management and Risk Management.

Computer vision tools for low-cost and noninvasive measurement of autism-related behaviors in infants.

The early detection of developmental disorders is key to child outcome, allowing interventions to be initiated which promote development and improve prognosis. Research on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) suggests that behavioral signs can be observed late in the first year of life. Many of these studies involve extensive frame-by-frame video observation and analysis of a child's natural behavior. Although nonintrusive, these methods are extremely time-intensive and require a high level of observer training; thus, they are burdensome for clinical and large population research purposes. This work is a first milestone in a long-term project on non-invasive early observation of children in order to aid in risk detection and research of neurodevelopmental disorders. We focus on providing low-cost computer vision tools to measure and identify ASD behavioral signs based on components of the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). In particular, we develop algorithms to measure responses to general ASD risk assessment tasks and activities outlined by the AOSI which assess visual attention by tracking facial features. We show results, including comparisons with expert and nonexpert clinicians, which demonstrate that the proposed computer vision tools can capture critical behavioral observations and potentially augment the clinician's behavioral observations obtained from real in-clinic assessments.

Factores de riesgo del comportamiento y readiness de aficionados inscritos a carreras atléticas de fondo de 18-64 años en Bogotá D.C., 2014”

La participación en carreras atléticas de calle ha aumentado; esto requiere detectar riesgos previos al esfuerzo físico. Objetivo. Identificar factores de riesgo del comportamiento y readiness de inscritos a una carrera. Método. Estudio transversal en aficionados de 18-64 años. Encuesta digital con módulos de IPAQ, PARQ+ y STEP. Muestreo aleatorio sistemático con n=510, para una inactividad física esperada de 35% (±5%). Se evaluó nivel de actividad física, consumo de alcohol (peligroso), de fruta, verdura, tabaco y sal, y readiness. Resultados. El cumplimiento de actividad física fue 97,4%; 2,4% consume nivel óptimo de fruta o verdura (diferencias por edad, sexo y estrato), 3,7% fuma y 44,1% consumo peligroso de alcohol. El 19,8% reportó PARQ+ positivo y 5,7% requiere supervisión. Hay diferencias por trabajo y estudio. Discusión. Los aficionados cumplen el nivel de actividad física; pero no de otros factores. Una estrategia de seguridad en el atletismo de calle es evaluar los factores de riesgo relacionados con el estilo de vida así como el readiness.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

Uso de una red inalámbrica de sensores para estimar riesgo de incendio

Una red inalámbrica de sensores (Wireless Sensor Network, WSN) constituye un sistema de comunicación de datos flexible utilizado como alternativa a las redes cableadas o como extensión de éstas y está compuesta por elementos de cómputo, medición y comunicación, que permiten al administrador instrumentar, observar y reaccionar a eventos y fenómenos en un ambiente específico. Una de las aplicaciones de estas redes es su uso en sistemas de predicción y prevención de incendios en áreas naturales. Su implementación se basa en el despliegue de sensores inalámbricos, realizado en una zona de riesgo de incendio para que puedan recolectar información sobre parámetros ambientales como temperatura, humedad, luz o presión, entre otros. Desde una estación base (o nodo "sumidero"), se suministra la información de los sensores a un centro de monitorización y control de forma estructurada. En este centro la información recibida puede ser analizada, procesada y visualizada en tiempo real. Desde este centro de control se puede controlar también la red WSN modificando el comportamiento de los sensores según el nivel de riesgo de incendio detectado. Este proyecto se basa en el diseño, implementación y despliegue de una red inalámbrica de sensores en un entorno simulado para observar su comportamiento en diferentes situaciones y mostrar su eficacia ante un posible caso de incendio. La implementación de este sistema denominado Sistema de Estimación de Riesgo de Incendio Utilizando una WSN (SERIUW) , junto con el desarrollado, en paralelo, de otro proyecto denominado Sistema de Control y Visualización de Información sobre Riesgo de Incendio (SCVIRI) que implementa las funciones de los centros de monitorización y control, conforman un Sistema de Anticipación y Seguimiento de Fuegos (SASF). Se han realizado pruebas de funcionalidad y eficacia, incluidas en la presente memoria del sistema unitario de en conjunto (ambos proyectos), en un entorno controlado simulado. Este sistema es una solución para la lucha contra los incendios forestales ya que predice y previene, de forma temprana, posibles incendios en las áreas naturales bajo supervisión. Ante un evento de incendio declarado este sistema es un poderoso instrumento de apoyo permitiendo, por un lado, generar alertas automáticas (con localización y gravedad de fuegos detectados) y por el otro, hacer un seguimiento del incendio con mapas en tiempo real (con su consecuente apoyo para la protección e información con las brigadas de bomberos en las zonas activas). ABSTRACT. A wireless sensor network (WSN) is a flexible data communication system used as an alternative to wired networks or as an extension of them and consists of nodes that perform calculation, measurement and communication activities. This allows the administrator to observe and react to events and phenomena in a specific environment. One application of these networks is fire prediction and prevention in natural areas. Its implementation is based on a deployment of wireless sensors, in a fire risk area, capable of collecting information such as temperature, humidity, luminance and pressure. A base station (or "sink") sends the collected information to a monitoring and control center following a structured format. At this center, the information received can be analyzed, processed and displayed in real time with monitoring systems. From this control center the WSN can also be controlled by changing the sensors behavior according to the level of fire risk detection. This project is based on the design, implementation and deployment of a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) in a simulated environment in order to observe its behavior in different situations and show its effectiveness against a possible fire environment. The implementation of this system called SERIUW, has been done in parallel with other system, called SCVIRI, which has been developed in another project that implements the functions of monitoring and control center. Together, these two systems, make up a general system of anticipation and monitoring of fires. Functionality and performance tests have been performed on the overall system, in a controlled and simulated environment. The results of these tests are included in this document. The global system is a solution to fight the forest fires because it makes it easier to predict and prevent, early, possible fires in natural areas under supervision. This sytem can be a powerful tool since, before a fire event is declared, it generates automatic alerts (including location and severity information) and allows the real-time motorization of fire evolution integrated with maps. This could be also very useful for the support protection and information of fire brigades in zones in which a fire is already active.

A COMUNICAÇÃO PODE SALVAR VIDAS: ALERTAS ANTECIPADOS DE EMERGÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS PELA TELEVISÃO DIGITAL INTERATIVA BRASILEIRA

Alertas Antecipados de Emergência são elementos importantes na redução de riscos de desastres, evitando a perda de vidas e reduzindo seu impacto econômico e material. Dentre os meios de comunicação mais eficazes para geração de alertas antecipados, a televisão digital com sua capacidade de emissão de um para muitos e ainda com suas possibilidades de gerar informações reativas com dados enviados pelo mesmo sinal de TV é, no momento, o estado da arte para ajudar a população em situações de risco, comprovado através de estudos comparativos entre os sistemas de alerta de emergência existentes hoje em todo o mundo. Neste trabalho são comparados os sistemas japonês e norte-americano, sendo que os referenciais teóricos apresentados focalizam o processo comunicacional de uma informação de emergência, a partir de diversas teorias que fundamentam o processo de comunicação em situações de crise, com os quais chegou-se à conclusão de que a tecnologia de televisão Digital Brasileira, juntamente com a infraestrutura essencial para detecção de riscos e confiabilidade para a geração de alertas antecipados já existente, dispõe de todo o ferramental necessário para a criação de um sistema nacional. Por fim são apresentadas as indicações iniciais para a criação de um modelo para uma comunicação eficaz e efetiva de informações de emergência destinado à população brasileira.

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).

Adjustment of apnea-hypopnea index with severity of obstruction events enhances detection of sleep apnea patients with the highest risk of severe health consequences

Introduction Presently, the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is estimated based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Unfortunately, AHI does not provide information on the severity of individual obstruction events. Previously, the severity of individual obstruction events has been suggested to be related to the outcome of the disease. In this study, we incorporate this information into AHI and test whether this novel approach would aid in discriminating patients with the highest risk. We hypothesize that the introduced adjusted AHI parameter provides a valuable supplement to AHI in the diagnosis of the severity of OSA. Methods This hypothesis was tested by means of retrospective follow-up (mean ± sd follow-up time 198.2 ± 24.7 months) of 1,068 men originally referred to night polygraphy due to suspected OSA. After exclusion of the 264 patients using CPAP, the remaining 804 patients were divided into normal (AHI < 5) and OSA (AHI ≥ 5) categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. For a more detailed analysis, the patients were divided into normal, mild, moderate, and severe OSA categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. Subsequently, the mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in these groups were determined. Results Use of the severity of individual obstruction events for adjustment of AHI led to a significant rearrangement of patients between severity categories. Due to this rearrangement, the number of deceased patients diagnosed to have OSA was increased when adjusted AHI was used as the diagnostic index. Importantly, risk ratios of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular morbidity were higher in moderate and severe OSA groups formed based on the adjusted AHI parameter than in those formed based on conventional AHI. Conclusions The adjusted AHI parameter was found to give valuable supplementary information to AHI and to potentially improve the recognition of OSA patients with the highest risk of mortality or cardiovascular morbidity.

Circulating tumor cell detection in high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer

Purpose The detection of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) provides important prognostic information in men with metastatic prostate cancer. We aim to determine the rate of detection of CTCs in patients with high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer using the CellSearch® method. Method Samples of peripheral blood (7.5 mL) were drawn from 36 men with newly diagnosed high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer, prior to any initiation of therapy and analyzed for CTCs using the CellSearch® method. Results The median age was 70 years, median PSA was 14.1, and the median Gleason score was 9. The median 5-year risk of progression of disease using a validated nomogram was 39 %. Five out of 36 patients (14 %, 95 % CI 5–30 %) had CTCs detected in their circulation. Four patients had only 1 CTC per 7.5 mL of blood detected. One patient had 3 CTCs per 7.5 mL of blood detected, which included a circulating tumor microemboli. Both on univariate analysis and multivariate analysis, there were no correlations found between CTC positivity and the classic prognostic factors including PSA, Gleason score, T-stage and age. Conclusion This study demonstrates that patients with high-risk, non-metastatic prostate cancer present infrequently with small number of CTCs in peripheral blood. This finding is consistent with the limited literature available in this setting. Other CTC isolation and detection technologies with improved sensitivity and specificity may enable detection of CTCs with mesenchymal phenotypes, although none as yet have been validated for clinical use. Newer assays are emerging for detection of new putative biomarkers for prostate cancer. Correlation of disease control outcomes with CTC detection will be important.